Description

This analysis provides a forecast of KAS prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-10-06 0.111268 0.124036 0.137263 0.151955 0.167786 0.184301 0.202797
2024-10-13 0.090762 0.109529 0.130081 0.154117 0.181311 0.210983 0.245659
2024-10-20 0.075996 0.098525 0.124444 0.156124 0.193447 0.235673 0.286693
2024-10-27 0.064888 0.089826 0.119816 0.157909 0.204357 0.258507 0.325728
2024-11-03 0.060854 0.088875 0.123795 0.169510 0.226738 0.294979 0.381403
2024-11-10 0.052991 0.081937 0.119385 0.169951 0.234954 0.314216 0.416576
2024-11-17 0.047391 0.077234 0.117175 0.172612 0.245545 0.336199 0.455223
2024-11-24 0.041943 0.072048 0.113713 0.173106 0.252977 0.354058 0.488820
2024-12-01 0.040228 0.071984 0.117080 0.182663 0.272313 0.387275 0.542260
2024-12-08 0.038665 0.071921 0.120301 0.191976 0.291425 0.420486 0.596225
2024-12-15 0.034944 0.068106 0.117754 0.192926 0.299043 0.438657 0.630939
2024-12-22 0.030474 0.062599 0.112256 0.189246 0.299970 0.447785 0.653821
2024-12-29 0.029145 0.062351 0.114940 0.197942 0.318968 0.482274 0.711899
2025-01-05 0.026972 0.060464 0.114999 0.202809 0.332818 0.510321 0.762303
2025-01-12 0.024690 0.058129 0.114160 0.206229 0.344656 0.535879 0.809912
2025-01-19 0.022485 0.055661 0.112885 0.208833 0.355287 0.559917 0.855852
2025-01-26 0.022632 0.057665 0.119095 0.223272 0.383628 0.609101 0.936819
2025-02-02 0.020372 0.054689 0.116663 0.223890 0.391387 0.629495 0.978593
2025-02-09 0.018771 0.052830 0.115980 0.227189 0.403143 0.655654 1.028634
2025-02-16 0.016931 0.050224 0.113762 0.227808 0.410736 0.675904 1.070666
2025-02-23 0.016789 0.051289 0.118188 0.239523 0.435589 0.721340 1.148535
2025-03-02 0.016600 0.052214 0.122367 0.250905 0.460110 0.766606 1.226678
2025-03-09 0.015149 0.050045 0.120604 0.252065 0.468555 0.788425 1.271726